Volatile market – Do’s and Don’ts for investors

Author: Mr. Lalit Thakkar

Title: Managing Director – Institution

Organization: Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd

Story headline: Volatile market – Do’s and Don’ts for investors

Spokesperson’s Bio:

Mr. Lalit Thakkar has been one of the cornerstones of Angel Broking since its inception. He has been pivotal in laying foundation of Angel research team. His distinction remains in his ability of identifying sectors and companies worth investing; ahead of time.

The current year has been a challenging one for equity investors led by weakness in earnings, monsoon worries and global factors. However, we expect earnings trajectory to improve in the second half of this fiscal. Regardless of how things pan out, investors should not get jittery with the volatility and believe in the long-term growth story of our economy.

Below are a few do’s and don’ts for investors to follow during periods of volatility.

  • Investors should not trade frequently and avoid panic selling at the behest of early sign of volatility. Disciplined investors should avoid moving in-and-out of stocks, as it could be cause losses as well as turn-out to be costly.
  • Investors should stick to good quality stocks to avoid being caught on the wrong foot. In volatile markets, companies with shaky fundamentals can see huge swings, sometimes based on rumours. Investors should research the stocks for the quality of its earnings and ability to deliver growth.
  • Diversification is the most foolproof method to handle market volatility and maximise risk adjusted returns. The portfolio should not be concentrated in a few stocks and be well diversified across sectors and market caps
  • Retail investors should resist the lure of making quick money in the market. Trading on the basis of rumours and unreliable tips should be strictly avoided as this may result in getting trapped in bad stocks. Investing should always be on the basis of sound advice based on in-depth research.
  • Many equity investors tend to commit the basic mistake to trying to time the market or follow momentum in volatile markets. Equity markets usually create value for investors over the long-run. Hence, investors should follow discipline and consider the strategy of investing regularly in high quality fundamental stocks.

I believe that markets are well positioned for a mega rally as lower crude prices and inflation, political stability and revival in the investment cycle would help improve earnings growth in the coming years. Increase in US interest rates, monsoon jitters and spikes in crude prices could act as intermittent short term risks. However, I believe the Fed is likely to be more careful in managing rate expectations and low US inflation should enable it to raise rates very gradually. Crude prices would also remain low, led by huge global supply and low marginal cost of production. The government too has sufficient food grains in stock to tackle any shortfall in production, which resultantly will not increase food inflation. With inflation remaining under control, the RBI will have enough headroom to cut rates significantly in the coming quarters.

Government reforms are also likely to drive markets as many of the reforms this government has undertaken are structural in nature. For example, the coal auctions will really help increase the coal production in the country, the benefit of which will be multi-fold. Also, the focus on reducing the bottlenecks in the infrastructure space and improving the ease of doing business will start reflecting in corporate earnings with a lag of few quarters. So I expect earnings to really grow at a rapid clip over the next 2-3 years, led by policy actions and reforms.

On a whole, our advise to equity investors is

(1) don’t get panicked by short-term volatility

(2) stay put with high quality fundamental stocks, and

(3) Take investment decisions based only on sound research.

Online Share Trading

1: Can changes in the broking account like address change – nomination - Demat account change be done online.
As per regulations, physical form and signature is required for these.  So as of now these are not done online.
2: For initial account opening is there a need for paper work and how long does that take?
Account opening happens within 4 hours for locations where we are present.
3: Does initial account opening also opens Demat account? Can it be done online?
Yes
4: Are the costs or services different if one transacts online versus offline
We offer discount on online trades
5: How much has your online platform grown versus their offline platform and what is the most frequent transaction online — is it in futures or options or delivery based trades?
While our offline revenue grew around 18-20%, our online revenues grew by almost 35% in FY15 as compared to FY14. We have comparable online to overall revenue ratio across all segments. In absolute terms, since FnO has the most volume, we can say most frequent transactions happen in FnO.
6: Is there an age group which prefers or is more active on the online platforms?
Usually the young crowd (20-40 age group) prefer the online platform. This crowd is tech savvy and also that we provide discounts if they trade online.    Recently we have seen that our clients between the age group of 40 to 60 have also started trading online actively

The Markets and China

“The sharp fall in the markets recently was led by a global sell-off triggered by concerns over the slowdown in the Chinese economy and fears of a currency war led by the Yuan devaluation. The fall in the benchmark indices was accentuated further by panic selling and margin calls. We expect markets to remain volatile in the the short term led by negative global cues. However, the fundamentals of the Indian economy remain intact and the sell-off can be attributed to global factors.

The US economic growth continues to remain strong which should help stabilize global markets in the coming days.

As the panic settles down, we believe the markets would offer strong buying opportunities for long term investors to enter at attractive valuations. Once the selling from FII’s abate, investors could look towards export drive sectors such as IT/Pharma and quality names across private banks, auto and infrastructure.

While Indian benchmark indices have fallen almost ~2.5% led by global concerns over the slowdown in the Chinese economy, fall in oil and other commodity price. The correction intensified led by the weak Caixin manufacturing PMI data for August, which fell to a six-and-a-half-year low of 47.1.

We expect the markets to remain volatile led by on the background of the upcoming snap elections in Greece and global macro data to be released next week. The Commerce department reported a 3.7% increase in US GDP in the second quarter of 2015, a sharp upward revision from the original estimate of 2.3% and well ahead of consensus. The strong growth figure came in the wake of volatile global markets, assuring investors that US growth continues to remain strong. The National Association of Realtors also reported a 0.5% rise in US home sales index, while the labor department figures indicated that initial jobless claims declined to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended Aug. 22, as against a consensus forecast of 274,000. The strong economic data from the US has increased the possibility of a rate hike this year and investors continue to keenly monitor comments from the Federal reserve.

Wonderla Holidays – Initiating Coverage

New amusement park at Hyderabad to boost footfalls: We expect Wonderla Holidays to report a healthy growth in footfalls (~18% CAGR over FY2015-17E) with it setting up a new amusement park in Hyderabad, which would be operational in FY2017. The company also has plans to venture across other parts of India to cater to a wider audience. In its first year of operation in Hyderabad, we expect the company to achieve ~7 lakh footfalls with lower utilisation of ~19%. Going forward, we expect the company to be able to report strong footfalls growth on back of increase in utilisation. Further, we expect the existing parks in Kochi and Bengaluru to post a ~4% CAGR over FY2015-17E. Moreover, the company has a proven track record and is expected to consistently increase its average realisation (realisation CAGR of ~10% over FY2009-15). The company is expected to incur strong cash flows and achieve higher assets turnover due to lower capex requirement, as most of the rides are manufactured at the in-house plant.

Outlook and Valuation: India’s young demographic profile and increasing discretionary spends are expected to benefit the entertainment industry in the country. Also, the addition of a new park in the company’s portfolio and expected increase in contribution from other segments like F&B, resort, etc will drive growth for the company, going forward. Further, the company has negative working capital and negligible debt on its balance sheet. With the company’s stock price having corrected by 20-22% from its all time high, the company now poses as a good buying opportunity in our view. At the current market price, the stock trades at a P/E of 21.3x its FY2017E EPS. We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and target price of `322 (25x FY2017E EPS), indicating an upside of ~17% in the stock price from the present levels.

Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Raloxifene Hydrochloride Tablet

This article has been authored by Ms. Sarabjit Kour Nangra

Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Raloxifene Hydrochloride Tablet: Aurobindo Pharma announced that the company has received the final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Raloxifene Hydrochloride Tablets USP 60mg (ANDA 204310).The approved ANDA is bioequivalent and therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD) Evista® Tablets, 60mg of Eli Lilly. Raloxifene Hydrochloride Tablets are indicated for treatment and prevention of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. The product has an estimated market size of US$404mn for the twelve months ending June 2015 according to IMS. There are currently only three generic players along with the innovators, thus the drug can add to the company’s revenues, significantly. The drug conservatively can add US$30-40mn to the sales of the company. However, on back of valuations, we maintain our accumulate view on the stock, with a price target of `872.

Views on Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Entecavir Tablets

This article has been authored by Ms. Sarabjit Kour Nangra (VP Research – Pharma & IT, Angel Broking)

Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Entecavir Tablets

Aurobindo Pharma has received the final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Entecavir Tablets, 0.5mg and 1mg (ANDA 206217).The approved ANDA is bioequivalent and therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD) Baraclude® Tablets, 0.5mg and 1mg, of Bristol-Myers Squibb. Entecavir Tablets are indicated for treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection of the liver.

The product has an estimated market size of US$294mn for the twelve months ending June 2015 according to IMS. The product has less competition with only Teva Pharma USA and Hetero Labs LTDV. Thus we expect the company to gross sales of US$50mn and around US$25mn in sales and net profit respectively for the company. We remain NEUTRAL on the stock.

Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Entecavir Tablets

This article has been authored by Ms. Sarabjit Kour Nangra


Aurobindo Pharma receives USFDA Approval for Entecavir Tablets: Aurobindo Pharma has received the final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Entecavir Tablets, 0.5mg and 1mg (ANDA 206217).The approved ANDA is bioequivalent and therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD) Baraclude® Tablets, 0.5mg and 1mg, of Bristol-Myers Squibb. Entecavir Tablets are indicated for treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection of the liver.

The product has an estimated market size of US$294mn for the twelve months ending June 2015 according to IMS. The product has less competition for the product with only Teva Pharma USA and Hetero Labs LTDV. Thus we expect the company can gross sales of US$50mn and around US$25mn in sales and net profit respectively for the company. We remain neutral on the stock.

Prabhat Dairy Limited – IPO Note

Prabhat Dairy Ltd – Aviod

Prabhat Dairy (Prabhat) is an integrated milk and dairy products company
catering to institutional as well as retail customers. The company sells its products
under retail consumer brands (which account for ~24% of the revenue) as well as
ingredient products and co-manufactured products to a number of institutional
and multinational companies (accounting for ~76% of total revenue). It procures
majority of its milk from milk farmers and registered milk vendors; as of June 30,
2015, its milk collection facilities included more than 450 milk collection centers,
over 15 milk chilling plants and over 85 bulk milk coolers with aggregate milk
processing capacity of 1.5mn litres per day. The processing and production
facilities are located at Shrirampur (Ahmednagar) and at Navi Mumbai. The company
has recently added production capacities for several new dairy products including
mozzarella cheese, cheddar cheese, processed cheese, cottage cheese (paneer) and
shrikhand and has commenced production of these products in FY2016.

Though the company has posted a CAGR of 27.5% and
30.3% in revenue and net profit respectively over FY2012-15, it is still expensive
in terms of valuation. On pre-issue outstanding shares, the stock is valued at
47.5x its FY2015 EPS and at EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.7x on the lower end of the
price band. Its peer Heritage Foods trades at 29.4x its FY2015 earnings and at
EV/EBITDA multiple (FY2015) of 11.4x. Hence on account of higher valuation we
recommend to Avoid subscribing to the issue.

Sun Pharma announces US FDA approval for XiminoTM

This article has been authored by Ms. Sarabjit Kour Nangra


Sun Pharma announces US FDA approval for XiminoTM :Sun Pharmaceutical today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved its Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for XiminoTM (Minocycline HCl) extended-release capsules 45 mg, 90 mg and 135 mg. XiminoTM extended-release capsules are indicated for inflammatory lesions of non-nodular moderate to severe acne vulgaris in patients 12 years of age and older. This approval further strengthens the Company’s branded dermatology portfolio in the US. It expects XiminoTM extended-release capsules to be available for patients during the fourth quarter of 2015.

The US market is the largest market for the global acne products with about 50mn suffering from acne in the country. As of January 31, 2015 is a $3.0bn market in the US branded prescription market. The market is split between oral antibiotics ($1.7bn in sales) or lotions, creams and ointments ($1.3bn in sales).The acne market is so fragmented that numerous companies are selling hundreds of millions worth of drug treatments. Thus, the landscape is very competitive, with no dominant leader. The most prominent brand in the US Solodyn has US sales of US$300-400mn. Thus, the product can garner decent sales from the product. However given the generic competition, conservatively we estimate the product can contribute around US$50-80mn to the annual sales of the company, with net profit around US$25-40mn. We remain neutral on the stock.

Live Chat event with Mayuresh Joshi – Business Standard


Mayuresh Joshi
Fund Manager (PMS), Angel Broking
Date: August 17, 2015, 12:00 PM
Subject: Fundamental check on the markets



MODERATOR:
Hello, everyone and welcome to the chat with Mayuresh Joshi, Fund Manager (PMS), Angel Broking
MAYURESH JOSHI:
Hello

ASKED BY: ABHINAV

Is it a good time to buy mid-cap stocks? Can you suggest a few? I can invest up to Rs 1 lakh
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Abhinav, One must follow a bottom up approach in identifying mid cap stocks and the ability of these companies to withstand business cycle gyrations and show steady earnings momentum. What we like from the mid cap space at this point are companies like Bajaj electricals, MBL Infrastructure, Hindustan Media Ventures, MT Educare, LIC Housing finance. All these compnaies can reflect steady earnings momentum and as the economy revovers over a period of time, they shall witness margin expnasion aided by the fact that valuations are not looking expensive/steep.

ASKED BY: RACHIT
HI Mayuresh, I am currently holding the shares of Dishman Pharma, bought the shares at the price of Rs 200 per share. Please let me know the future of the stock. Thanks, Rachit
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Rachit…. Dishman’s main business vertical is the CRAMS segment is expected to stabilize as Carbogen Amcis has a decent order book and its Vitamin D is expected to scale up. Also EBIDTA margins are higher for these business vertical. The management is also not looking at any meaningful Capex over the next 2 years and focussed on improving the profitability of the business. So capex is expected to be around 30-50 crs and its intent of sweating its assets and restructuring the business, which will lead to improvement in profitability over the medium term. We expect the ROCE to improve to 13.1% in FY2017E from 7.7% in FY2012.We remain bullish on the stock. Please hold.

ASKED BY: SUJAL SHAH
Please give me 5 mid-cap stock stock ideas that have strong fundamentals
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Sujal, Some of the mid cap stocks that we are liking at this juncture are: Bajaj Electricals: Turnaround play on improving business prospects in the E&P vertical and return to profitability in FY 17 from losses incurred in FY15 MBL infra: Strong play on the EPC side with special focus on the roads and highways segment MT educare: Strong play in Mumbai education market, expanding region coverage and showing stability in earnings. Hindustan Media Ventures: Strong advertising and subscription growth in Hindi reading belts, strong Balance sheet Surya Roshni: Strong play on the Lighting division though steel business is causing some compression on consolidated numbers. Recovery expected in next 2 years. LIC housing Finance: Strong loan grwoth, asset quality stable, cost of funds coming down and valuations attractive.

ASKED BY: JAI PRAKASH
What should one to do with PTC, Delta Corporation and Adani Power?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Jai Prakash, Power stocks like PTC have faced issues in the past due to Grid constraints resulting in the spreads in their trading business dwindling for contractual issues faced by the company. Albeit, 4.8GW of capacity is expected to be added to their portfolio over the next year or so and PPA’s and PSA;s are in place for a majority of its capacity. Its tolling business is also seen under pressure while one must apply the holding discount to its subsidiary PTC financial services. So recovery would hinge on sate of DISCOM financial health improving and Grid constraints coming off. Hold if one has a view of more than 2 years to give time for earnings recovery. Adani power has a highly leveraged balance sheet which makes cash flows not sustainable while Delta in my opinion is more of a trading play. I would rather prefer the housing finance companies like LIC housing which would see benefits from a falling interest rate scenario and asset quality holding up.

ASKED BY: VIJAYENDRA VEDIC
When fundamental and technical aspect are the same, why does a stock move 7% to 10% and other only 1% to 2%?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Vijayendra, Fundamentals are more a play on how the Balance sheet is coping up for the company and how the earnings are shaping up. Consistency in these two elements taking into cognizance macro conditions and the micro environment exhibit the ability of the business to withstand tough economic cycles. Technical s are more or less based on the time and price chart patters and a tool from a short to medium term perspective. So if fundamentals are strong the stock delivers returns over a longer time horizon while technical are relying on volumes of the underlying stock, news associated with certain stocks/sectors etc.

ASKED BY: RUDRAKSHA
Sir, I have 500 shares of Syncom Formulations bought at Rs 12. What should I do now?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Rudraksha, I am not covering Syncom Forumations. However we remain optimistic on Dishman Pharma from the mid cap pharma space and Sun Pharma from the top tier pharma names. FY2016 US sales are expected to continue to be impacted for Ranbaxy integration issues as well as remedial issues related to its plants. However a revival is expected only in FY2017. Thus, we expect a 2.2% growth in FY2016 and around 16.0% yoy growth in FY2017, in the US. We expect the domestic formulation business to post a CAGR of 15.4% over FY2015-17E, contributing 27% to the overall formulation sales of the company in FY2017. Sun Pharma has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector with cash of 10,000cr. The same can continue to support the Management in inorganic growth and in scouting for acquisitions, especially in the US and in emerging markets. Can look at the stock on declines.

ASKED BY: GIRISH VAIDYA
I am stuck in delivery position (longs) on Kaveri Seeds from 800 levels. The way its falling, is there any merit in holding these longs, or shall I come out in loss? Have a time frame of 6 months. Thanks
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Girish, I unfortunately do not cover Kaveri seeds.

ASKED BY: AKSHAY
What should one do to make the market as a major part of one’s income, say with an investment of Rs 5,000?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Akshay, One needs to consistently/systematically keep on investing in the markets and have a horizon of more than 3-5 years. The return on investments over a longer time period shall have a compounding effect on how your earnings shall grow. If you are a new investor the best way is to opt for SIP instruments in Mutual funds which allows you entry points across different time horizons and reduces your impact cots and risks associated with sharp market volatility.

ASKED BY: MILIND BHALIWADE
What are your views on Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and Nifty Cash?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Milind, Numbers were on expected lines. However cash flows might remain subdued primarily due to the spectrum payments and african operations resulting in return ratios remaining muted. Also the reliance jio launch is keenly awaited, Data revenues have seen good traction but the debt on its books still eats into the bottom line because of the interest serving component. Largely neutral at this point of time. Tata Motors has seen slowdown in china affecting its volume growth substantially and the management also sees FY16 to be muted. However its new product launches, its Chinese JV operations, recover in India business and valuations support its long term story. We remain positive on the stock but the horizon has to at least 15-18 months to let volume recovery play on the JLR story.

ASKED BY: VINEET
What is your view on state-owned banks following the government’s revival plan ‘Indradhanush’ and appointment of private banking personnel to head some of the state-owned banks? With some banks already rallying post the news, which would be your top picks for a 3-year holding period?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Vineet, The inherent dynamics do not change for the PSU banking space. Asset quality concerns from stressed sectors like Iron/steel, Real estate, Sugar, Infrastructure still persist putting pressure on asset quality. The recapitalization move is very positive but for return ratios to improve shall take time. Yes valuations are very attractive for the whole lot but then one must be selective. We like State Bank of India from the PSU Banking lot due to its high CASA and fee income, which has supported its core profitability in challenging times. Its strong capital adequacy also provides comfort. In our view, its current valuation of 1.1x FY2017E ABV, after adjusting for subsidiaries, factors in the positives for the bank.

ASKED BY: BIPIN
Is this a right time to invest or should one wait for the markets to come down? Are there any specific stocks where I can from one – two year’s horizon?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Bipin, One can ideally invest in the markets over the next 3 months in a systematic manner. This shall aid in covering risks if the markets correct for any of the reasons. viz: Weak monsoons, FED action, Markets to digest the Chinese Yuan devaluation move, weak corporate results, Capex cycle taking time to take off, Investment cycle getting delayed etc. This shall result in your impact cots coming down considering the markets correct for any of the reasons in the coming few months. From a large cap perspective we like Axis Bank/ICICI bank, Infosys/Tech Mahindra, Power Grid and from the mid cap universe LIC Housing Finance, Bajaj Electricals, INOX wind.

ASKED BY: PARAG
Research indicates that passenger car and commercial vehicle makers except Tata Motors have hit 52-week highs in August. Do you see higher valuations going forward for Maruti Suzuki and M&M? What is your advice for new investors that wish to invest in Tata Motors for the long-term?
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Parag, Maruti has delivered consistent earnings growth in the past few quarters and the same is getting reflected in the stock price. The passenger vehicle (PV) industry is well poised to post double-digit growth over the next two years, given the improved consumer sentiment, better economic outlook and softer fuel prices. Further, MSIL is focusing on larger cars with two new product launches scheduled in the large car segment over the next one year period, which would boost its market share and profitability. Also, we believe MSIL would be able to sustain higher margins (we have built in 17% margin levels in our estimates for FY2016/17) given the subdued commodity prices and favorable currency rates. Further, reduction in discounts due to improved industry outlook coupled with new product launches and benefits of operating leverage would keep the margins at elevated levels. We feel the earnings momentum should continue for strong operating performance. Hod,Maruti. M&M 1QFY2016 results were ahead of estimates primarily on account of strong operating performance. M&M operating margins at 14.3% surprised positively and were significantly ahead of our as well as consensus estimates (estimates stood at about 12%). The operating margins were commendable given the subdued topline. M&M saw benefits of soft commodity prices during the quarter. Apart from the subdued raw material prices, cost control initiatives also boosted the margins. Tractor business might witness volume compression as indicated by the management but the UV business with new launches expected can reflect better numbers. We are not upgrading our earnings estimates substantially but believe that better numbers can get reflected FY17 onwards. Hold. Tata motors remains attractive its new product launches, its Chinese JV operations, recover in India business and valuations support its long term story. We remain positive on the stock but the horizon has to at least 15-18 months to let volume recovery play on the JLR story. Can look at accumulating Tata motors gradually over the next 3 months as large part of earnings disappointment is in the price.

ASKED BY: DHANRAJ
I have bought 100 shares of Crompton Greaves at Rs 187.80; 80 IL&FS Transportation Networks at Rs 219.70, Qty is 80; 299 Mahindra CIE Auto at Rs 66 and 100 Camlin Fine Science at 106. All stocks have an investment horizon of over 7 years. Should I hold / switch / buy more or sell these? Please suggest.
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Dhanraj, Crompton is in the midst of business restructuring process as it is planning to sell-off its international power business while the consumer business’ demerger will unlock shareholders value. Given the attractive valuation (stock trading at 0.9x FY2017E EV/Sales compared to its five year trading range of 0.5x to 1.5x), we maintain our positibe view on the stock. IL&FS transportation has a robust order backlog and strong execution capabilities which gets offset by the company’s higher consol. Debt/Equity ratio, which is eating into the profits. Their 1QFY2016 order book at 15,791cr, gives revenue visibility for the Construction segment for over the next 36 months with 31 BOT Road projects spread across 16 states in India. ITNL is currently sitting on a consol. D/E ratio of 4.2x (reflecting debt of `24,832cr). On considering, (1) equity requirement of `557cr towards existing BOT projects, (2) 9 BOT projects expected to commence operations in the next 18 months, and (3) the levered Balance Sheet status, we are of the view that the growth for the company would not flow down entirely to the PAT level, as higher interest expenses would eat into the EBITDA. Hence, till the time more visibility emerges on the Balance Sheet de-leveraging process, we expect profitability to be under pressure. You would need to give more time for fundamentals to improve. I unfortunately do not cover Mahindra CIE and Camlin fine scienes but in the auto ancillary space we remain positive on MM forgings. Given that the company is increasing its capacity to cater to improving demand from domestic CV industry as well as from its major export market – USA, we are positive on the company from a long term perspective. We expect MMFL to register a revenue CAGR of 15.5% over FY2015-17E to `671cr in FY2017E. The company’s EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 82bp over the same period to 22.9% for FY2017E. Consequently, the net profit is expected to improve to `80cr in FY2017E.

ASKED BY: ARUN GAUTAM
I hold Gayatri Projects, bought at Rs 55. Should I hold or sell? I am a long-term investor
ANSWER BY: MAYURESH JOSHI
Hi Arun, I unfortunately do not cover Gayatri Projects.

MODERATOR:
Thank you, Mr Joshi for your time and advice. We also thank our readers for sending their queries. Any disclosures?
MAYURESH JOSHI:
ANGEL BROKING Pvt Ltd – Disclosure in public appearance:
Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164.
Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates including its relatives / analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates / analyst have not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel / analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly / internal data / other reliable sources believed to be true. Angel does not represent / provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions / risks involved before making any investment decision.

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